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Prediction for CME (2025-10-13T13:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-10-13T13:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41732/-1
CME Note: Wide CME visible to the NE in STEREO A COR2 and the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is an M1.2 flare from AR 14246 (N24W23) peaking at 2025-10-13T13:18Z. Eruption with dimming and opening field lines best seen in GOES SUVI 195 and from the point of view of STEREO A EUV 195.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-10-17T09:32Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-16T13:08Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-10-13 19:35
 - Time at C2: 2025-10-13 13:53
 - Radial speed: 536.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 31 deg
 - Eruption location: N36W19
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: M1.2 (N23W20). Peak at 2025-10-13 13:04
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 555.70 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2025-10-16 13:08 (i.e. predicted transit time: 71.25 hours)
Lead Time: 58.17 hour(s)
Difference: 20.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2025-10-14T23:22Z
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